“It is our choices, Harry, that show what we truly are, far more than our abilities.”
Albus Dumbledore (in: Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets)
What is the best possible case one can make for how Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze runs Georgia?
Developing such a case is a fraught undertaking at a time when even some faithful readers of this Substack are in jail. But then this is what real democracy is also about — making an effort to articulate the perspective of an opponent better than he would typically render it. Properly understood, democracy asks us to be existentially curious about what others think, not just to barter pre-established positions.
In this spirit, if I had to make the case for Irakli Kobakhidze, here is what I might argue. (If this thought experiment is not for you, I totally understand.)
When promoted to Prime Minister in February 2024, Irakli Kobakhidze realizes that he faces a nigh-impossible situation. He has a sharp mind and this is how the situation will look to him: under the Georgian Dream governance, corruption has become endemic. Key problems cannot be solved as his predecessors (Prime Ministers Kvirikashvili, Bakhtadze, Gakharia, Gharibashvili) had no control over their own cabinet or ministers. The West is an eventual destination but is proving a poor ally even in a fight that is existential for its future. Georgia, unlike, Ukraine, is not essential for Europe and can do less to defend itself. Georgia — like it or not — needs to keep the Kremlin at bay.
The opposition spectrum includes some people he grudgingly respects but many of these opposition leaders let themselves be bullied by, in his view, the zealots of the National Movement. Too many of them have shown no indication that they can stand up to stop Saakashvili were he to be released from prison and return with vengeance in his eyes. Moreover, he believes that even people in the opposition spectrum that are anti-Misha cannot be trusted with running the country in this tumultous situation, as their leadership is untested.
Bidzina is a Bigger Problem than Corruption, Incompetence & Opposition Parties
If Kobakhidze sees the state crumbling under corruption, Georgia’s geopolitics as hideously difficult and the opposition as a menace — these problems remain trivial in comparison to his biggest challenge. His main problem is Bidzina Ivanishvili himself. He will look at Bidzina’s previous lieutenants and see that none of them had a happy political trajectory.
Giorgi Kvirikashvili, one of Georgia’s most technocratic Prime Ministers, is under a cloud. One of his former ministers has been called in for an investigation that is still dangling. People closer to Ivanishvili have been muttering that Kvirikashvili’s situation is meant to be a purgatory. One of Kvirikashvili’s supposed transgressions? Trying to drive the ambitious Anaklia project forward on terms that were somewhat favorable to the private sector partners so as to get it done fast. (According to Kvirikashvili, the port of Anaklia was supposed to start functioning in 2019.) Another likely crime, according to stalwarts of the Georgian Dream? Looking too Prime Ministerial when Vice President Mike Pence was visiting in August 2017.
Two key lessons can be drawn from this, if you don’t want Bidzina to flip on you: be ultra-careful with aspirational projects & don’t ever try to make friends of your own.
The list goes on. Mamuka Bakhtadze, the next Prime Minister, no longer is in the public eye. Though the target of jokes because of wearing jackets several sizes too small, Bakhtadze on stage came across as someone with actual managerial competence. He now apparently is in no man’s land, though some claim to have see him drinking coffee on Kazbegi Street in Saburtalo.
Giorgi Gakharia has fallen out badly with Ivanishvili and lives in exile in Berlin. (Unlike Gakharia, Kobakhidze has not inspired much personal loyalty as a leader, so there is zero future in trying to rally an opposition grouping.)
Giorgi Margvelashvili, hand-picked to be President? He fell out, eventually to swap “politics for life as an AirBnB landlord”, as a Reuters headline put it in 2019. Salome Zourabichvili, the next presidential pick? The relationship unravelled and she now is a leading figure of the opposition spectrum. Giorgi Bachiashvili, previously a kind of crown prince? He is in prison, where he was badly beaten. Viktor Kipiani, a lawyer and confidante for many years? Also totally cut off.
A key question for Irakli Kobakhidze therefore must have been — how do I avoid becoming another Kvirikashvili/Zourabichvili/Bachiashvili/Kipiani? How do I maintain a relationship with someone who seems incapable to retain trust in those that he picks for elevation?
The novel move for Kobakhidze is not to try to temper Bidzina’s wilder impulses, but rather to amplify them. You cannot make a paranoid man more reasonable — but you certainly can make him even more paranoid. This insight seems to have been at the core of Kobakhidze’s strategy to get things moving.
Kobakhidze — Resentful that Successes not Recognized
Twenty months after Kobakhidze took charge, we can survey the results of this course of action. In key respects, Kobakhidze will feel that the strategy succeeded. Most others will primarily see its costs.
Kobakhidze has moved against corruption inside the Georgian Dream, by going after Irakli Gharibashvili and his cronies, arresting also Romeo Mikautadze (Deputy Minister of Economy), Juansher Burchuladze (Minister of Defence) and putting the fear into hundreds more officials that they might be next. He has done all of this amidst a challenging situation because in his view it simply must be done, regardless of the timing. It seems at least possible that he riled up Ivanishvili’s wrath by exaggerating people’s transgressions.
In one story that circulates, a former GD grandee is asked to repay $30m and responds, indignantly, “but I only stole $10m.” The vignette likely captures a truth about exaggerated sums being sought. An impossible demand could also explain what happened with Tornike Rizhvadze in early July — he might not have been able to comply, with desperation escalating until shots were fired.
Kobakhidze reasserted the control of the Prime Minister’s office. He is in charge of the cabinet and colleagues. He has eliminated alternative centers of power, such as Thea Tsulukiani wreaking her own damage in the justice and culture sectors. Again, Kobakhidze has probably amplified Ivanishvili’s doubt about other people to sideline them.
In terms of foreign policy, he had demonstrated to the Kremlin that he has zero intention of cozying up to the West by trashing the relationship every turn he gets, and — one could argue on his behalf — in return Georgia has mostly been left alone. Throughout he probably has reinforced Ivanishvili’s sense that others are out to get him, to play up his role in an essential defense against external pressure.
With orchestrated repression, he has thrown the opposition parties into disarray. He now seems set to eliminate them entirely, as he had vowed to. In line with how authoritarians often justify such steps, eliminating the current opposition parties should pave the way for new forces that are “more constructive.”
Kobakhidze has a structured mind and will regard this work as a continuation of a broader reordering that he has done since he became a key figure in Georgian politics in 2016. As he likely sees it, his constitutional reform has helped clean up a mess that had accumulated over previous decades. (His dissertation at the University of Düsseldorf shows such a preoccupation with order.) Kobakhidze believes in strong sovereign authority and helped complete the transition to a parliamentarian system by further weakening the presidency and aligning it with the legislative majority to reduce constitutional friction. He was involved in the switch to a proportional system of parliamentary representation, eliminating the majoritarian/first-past-the-post hold of privileged incumbent families with power bases in the regions, which gave them a disproportionate presence in Georgia’s politics.
All of this radical clean up, in Kobakhidze’s view, could only be done by bringing Ivanishvili onto his side. He could only bring Ivanishvili on his side by not ever contradicting his concerns and suspicions, but working with and through them. While Ivanishvili insists that he welcomes divergent views, he dislikes being challenged once his mind is set. Many of the people working for him seem to have misread the initially constructive relationship to assume they are equals. Kobakhidze did whatever he could not to repeat that mistake.
But perhaps, in an out-there view, Kobakhidze might be up to even more.
Could Kobakhidze be Severus Snape?
In a more extreme justification, Kobakhidze could be said to attempt an extraordinary mission to save the country — with an unexpected plot twist.
Could Kobakhidze be Severus Snape? Might he be that figure from Harry Potter, the dislikeable teacher who is into the Dark Arts but in the end turns out to have been on the right side all along? Kobakhidze has insinuated to people that he “needs to do what he needs to do.”
Snape, who also pays insufficient attention to the state of his hair, is described as a complicated and rigid person, “cold, calculating, precise, sarcastic, and bitter.” (To be fair, at least some of his former students say that Kobakhidze was a great mentor when he was teaching law at Tbilisi State University.) Alan Rickman, the actor playing Snape in the films, has said that “Snape isn’t one who enjoys jokes and I strongly fear that his sense of humour is extremely limited [...] But in his defence, I will add that he didn’t have an easy adolescence, particularly during his studies at Hogwarts.”
As these things go, Kobakhidze did spend some time at a lush German boarding school, the Landheim Ammersee. (The scenic location in Bavaria is also where he first became friends with someone from a family with out-of-of-this-world wealth. Typically such encounters are a somewhat dislocating experience.)
If I had to come up with the best possible case to make, I would suggest that Kobakhidze may indeed secretly harbour a bigger Snape-like plan. In this version, his real aim is to help Ivanishvili leave politics altogether. Though it seems completely unlikely, Kobakhidze’s wish to have things in good order — a strong thread in his professional life — may get him to feel that a departure is needed for the country to move forward. Yet for the endgame to work, Kobakhidze has to create assurances that Ivanishvili can leave.
Why the hurry? Ivanishvili will turn 70 on February 18, 2026, and this could be a deadline to work towards. The anti-corruption purges? In this view, they are in good part a recovery of money that Ivanishvili has spent for the Georgian Dream and that he must claw back before he relinquishes power. Eliminating the opposition? The Georgian Dream needs to survive at least a transition period to make sure that any arrangements can come into effect and last. The anger at the West? They made Ivanishvili’s departure more difficult by removing access to his money in the West. They keep getting in the way of Kobakhidze’s designs. The semi-unhinged attacks? They are a way of reassuring Ivanishvili, a man who has become so bitter at all the people betraying him that he thinks that only those who share and display his anger are still on his side.
Is that plan shared with Bidzina? Possibly, but it could also be that Kobakhidze is shaping a path towards the eventual big departure without such an agreement.
Whichever version one goes for (and the one without wizardry obviously is more rooted in plausibility), Kobakhidze will recognize that things at the moment are difficult. But he could conclude that one just has to push a bit more to prevail. He may also have some tricks in reserve that he believes will vastly improve his outlook, including coming to an arrangement with Russia that will be advantageous for Georgia also. (Given his father’s politics, this has long been rumoured to be a major aspect of his thinking, which this post does not expand on. Another thing missing from this account is explaining Kobakhidze’s actions entirely through his personality, which has several Snape-like traits, but without intent or strategy.)
It Still Does Not Add Up
“Legilimency”, the practice of navigating the layers of another person’s mind and interpreting their thoughts, is an essential art for the present moment in Georgia, not just for Hogwarts. Politics is made by a tiny handful of men, not by institutions.
If we try to navigate Kobakhidze’s mind, it can be argued that he correctly identified essential problems the country faces. He seems to be on track to fixing some of them. Kobakhidze likely is one of the sharpest Prime Ministers that Georgia has had in recent decades.
Yet even in making the best possible case, to me the solutions still do not add up. In most contexts, sharpness must be sheathed.
To start with, the overall politics of the Georgian Dream betray just how little faith Kobakhidze has in the Georgian people. If he is so convinced by his own analysis, why not persuade the Georgian people without resorting to ultra-divisive rhetoric?
Politics is not made by casting magical spells though it can be wrecked by them. Kobakhidze has unleashed forces that he already now struggles to control. When you throw aspersions in all directions, they eventually transfigure into a kind of terrible poison that corrodes everything around you. Even if one assumes (generously) that the divisiveness is a temporary tactic, vindictiveness will eventually take over. The Dark Arts cannot set the country on a bright course.
With things so warped, you can anyway not succeed alone. In Hogwarts, Snape can only do the right thing because he is anchored by a figure of authority with vastly more experience and judgment. Kobakhidze has no Dumbledore to balance him out.
Instead of good or at least reasonable allies, Kobakhidze has had to rely on people that are as close to Death Eaters as it can get. Once you rely on bad people who relish vicious deeds, it becomes extremely hard to escape your entanglements. You end up with all the wrong people across most key positions, including the presidency, the cabinet, the judiciary, police, culture, and soon also all educational institutions.
The damage already done to Georgia is vast. J.K. Rowling’s Sectumsempra offers an apt metaphor. This Laceration Curse, developed by Snape, slashes its victims and “results in deep wounds.” Such “curse wounds (especially those in the nature of the Dark Arts), were unable to be healed, and the counter curse was unknown.” The description seems sadly plausible. If the Georgian Dream was truly engaged in a good faith attempt to move the country forward in complicated times, it would seek to strengthen institutions, not damage or even dismantle them.
What to make of all this? On the available evidence, the best possible case shows up short. (If there is anything essential I missed in making his case, please write a comment.)
More broadly, the mythical world of a children’s novel may seem an odd prism when the deep wounds to people (including readers of these posts) and to the country’s soul are a source of real pain. Yet it anyway is the time of projections, including that of the Deep State as a conniving force.
In other ways, Hogwarts is a plausible framing in that it describes an existential contest. As literature, the story of Harry Potter introduces children to the stark insight that you can be up against people that try to harm you, your friends and family, and even those most important for your reassurance as you grow up — your parents. For anyone willing to engage with this message, that world contains its own reminder that politics needs to bring empathy for people squarely back in. Especially in a time of crisis, leaders have to be able to tell a compelling and attractive story to help us all escape what to so many appears like a terrible hex. It’s an open question whether an only-analytic mind can fully grasp this essential truth.
What an interesting take. Be as it may, his own “internal” thoughts of being savior of the country are far more than true - he is rather being used by other forces, who manipulate those thoughts of him
I salute your effort to tell a tale from his perspective it’s refreshingly original. To advance the Snape hypothesis he cannot afford popularity as then he outshines his patron. A la Kvirikashvili…