Demonstrating Leadership -- Why the Opposition Parties Should Go for Municipal Elections

A difficult choice but on balance the better strategy

Here is a view that most of my friends find highly controversial. In my mind, the opposition parties should go contest the municipal election in October 2025. If I say this, most of my friends start yelling at me. I respect their views. I still think going into the elections is the right step to take.

Imagine listening to two politicians. One tells you:

“We think the next election will be unfair and not offer us a plausible chance to compete. We also don’t think the regime is legitimate, and don’t want to help it by playing games on their terms. Participating now would be inconsistent, and falsely legitimize the Georgian Dream authorities.”

The other:

“I want to fight for you, and for this country. In the end, I do not care so much whether these elections are fair or not. I did not get into politics for a fair fight, or because I thought it would be easy. I got into it because it’s hard. I love my country, I want to help set it on the right course, and I will go into these local elections because on every single street in Georgia, there are issues that we need to fix. I want to talk to as many people as I can, I want to talk to you, about how we can set our communities and our entire country back on the right path.”

Of these two, who would you prefer to follow? Now and in a few years? Who do you think should be in the mix to take over, if GD suddenly collapses (as it may well, though it seems unlikely now)?

With all the neglect, it’s not a hard to make the case that the entire country needs to be brought back on track.

In Georgia at this point, there is a lack of leadership and a surplus of bickering. In my mind it is the superior strategy to throw oneself into the election, fusing local issues – where the incompetence of the Georgian Dream is most keenly felt – with the broader lack of justice and legitimacy. Localizing the political contest is especially advisable as the global context has become more fraught, and as Rustaveli is unlikely to be the arena of drastic change.

How I Would Talk with Voters

If I was a Georgian politician, here is how I would put that. “Look around yourself. See these derelict building over there, falling apart? That fancy attempt at a park, seems kinda nice, but we all know that a lot of money was skimmed off. [Add the next problem you see.] Why do you think they are dividing the country, why do they need to lock up decent 19-year old kids, that should be the future of the country? Because they cannot solve any of these problems that you experience every day. And in their hearts, these guys, they all know that.”

Then lay out your program. Connect it back to what you said you would do in the last election, so that your conversation does not look transactional. Repeat what citizens told you. Listen to what problems they want solved locally. Say that people should feel proud of their communities, and celebrate them, rather than feel that these are places they want to get away from.

Make that conversation about what is special, locally, a real thing. Ask them which places in their communities they like most, tell them that you may go and visit, take a selfie, post, and mention that Marika or Zviad recommended that place, without doxxing them. (Incidentally, the Wiki Commons App has a good map of major monuments that even local often don’t know about.)

Almost anywhere in Georgia, you are within half an hour of a truly remarkable place or monument to the past— and highlighting that helps people feel more confident about their future, too.

If you do that, people will not forget your visit. They will get that you valued what they had to say. They might show your social media profile to their friends and family, to show how you took up their suggestion. Perhaps they will even follow you, or join a mailing list (which you anyway should have).

Attacks are a Test of Leadership

Other opposition parties will attack you for going into the local elections. I would take that as a test of leadership. It’s in how one handles these attacks that one will show the capacity to deal with a challenge. Moving the country out of this crisis will take a lot more than withstanding people being angry on Facebook.

With a little support and engagement, local communities can thrive — here a one of Tbilisi’s positive outliers, Fabrika.

There is a broader question of agency. In the two variants above (boycott vs fight for you), re-read and ask yourself: which of these two messages puts citizens more at the center? Which one defines the present situation (and what one does, and does not do) through the Georgian Dream?

When you talk about wanting to fight for the country, the center of the story is the politician who will stand up. In announcing the boycott, the center of the story is Bidzina Ivanishvili, who tells people to sit down. The boycott – especially one in anticipation of possibly being banned – defines the opposition spectrum through what the repressive regime may or may not do.

As a politician, I would never allow others to define me in that way. I would go still go in, even if I expect that it will be a steep and unfair battle — “because I want to fight for you!”

It can’t be all gloom. You have to lay out a compelling vision of a better future.

There is a seemingly plausible version going around of saying that one should only go into local elections if there are major concessions by GD, such as the release of the political prisoners (which is the correct term), changes to the electoral setup (aligned with ODIHR recommendations) after the massive rigging in October last year, and perhaps other concessions, too. This is a perilous course. If I was Bidzina Ivanishvili I would concede half measures, such as releasing some of the political prisoners, and some tweaks on the electoral code, but not enough – and then you are stuck in a process of bartering, with huge downside risks.

If one would insist on all political prisoners to be released, does Misha count? Most sensible people agree that his treatment is abysmal and his most recent sentence manifestly unjust, but it is the perfect wedge for GD to run with. Should a non-UNM party boycott if all prisoners are released, but Misha is not? We can discuss this for weeks – and that squabble (one party wants to go in; UNM attacking them for lack of solidarity) will make opposition parties so patently irrelevant to the concerns of the citizens that Georgian Dream can call another parliamentary election with a solid chance of winning it even fairly. I would stay a million miles from having my political space of manoeuvre tethered by any other actor, justified as their concerns may be. You can go in now and still insist on changes, while challenging the entire legitimacy.

As has been pointed out, there are some additional downsides to not going into local elections. In many places, the local party base wants to gear up, as this is their raison d’etre. If you do not run, they will switch to whoever offers them something. Also, the public attention and thereby the political space may well be filled by Alt Info's “kept” opposition, as in Russia. Without political action, there is a risk that opposition parties will fade into a vague dissident existence.

Plan for Repression, Work out your Pitch (& Never Forget Prisoners)

Any course at this point is tricky. Going in should be planned with the likelihood that repression will greatly escalate. This escalation needs to be imagined and planned ahead right now, including the worst case scenario, and be part of the continuum. If one has imagined the worst (and yes, extreme scenarios), one is ahead of what happens, and not reeling when it actually happens. Several excellent analysts, such as Saba Brachveli have described some of the scenarios of what may be ahead. These are plausible analyses, but I disagree with the conclusion. One needs to engage people’s attention precisely because the political situation is so bad.

What on earth is wheelchair suitable about this? Who is actually in charge in this country? [Photo by Sara M-K.]

In all this, municipal elections are not the end goal. They are absolutely not enough for helping Georgia back to a better trajectory. But the municipal election is one of the battles that can and must be fought. No single thing will save the country – it’s only if one advances across multiple angles that there is a reasonable chance of success for people who want to put Georgia back on a democratic track. (More on what I think is a plausible strategy to follow soon. Ping me if you are particularly interested in that.)

The language of any potential campaign needs to be worked out well. It needs to seem effortless, but at the same time synthesize the fundamental challenge to legitimacy with local issues. Effectively, the campaign needs to begin now. It has become clear in the last election that voters mostly seem to shut down in the last two months, when engagement seems transactional.

Prisoners and the lack of legitimacy need to be front-and center. Don’t concede an inch on this. I would talk about the future, about wanting to win an unfair fight, and how it can be done if people give themselves hope, and that hope comes from doing, not out of nothing, and that everyone needs to do their tiny bit to put this country back on the track that it deserves to be on.

As I said in the beginning, I respect everyone who says they do not want to participate. That is a justified and legitimate choice. But there also is a place for people to go in and contest whatever space there may be. That is a reasonable approach, too, and there is not much to be gained by the pro-democracy spectrum if those who go in are massively attacked, when there really should be a bigger focus.

In many ways, local elections are a gift. Think about the last election. What can you tell people in Gldani about the path to the EU, an institution that appears thousands of kilometers away? These very same people in Gldani and in other outskirts, they know that getting to work, on a bad day, can take two hours. They experience the consequences of incompetence and neglect every day. (There is still not a single bus map of Tbilisi up anywhere in the city!!!)

This kind of neglegt is the reality all across this country. The local level is where you can prosecute the case against the Georgian Dream better than everywhere else. That is why I would go in for the fight, difficult as it may be. The vacuum is not in another boycott – it’s in providing leadership (“I want to fight for you”), in adverse circumstances.

Comments welcome. (I get the principled case — I do not understand how it’s the strategically better option.)